The housing market remains in the doldrums through the first quarter of 2009. As we bounce along the bottom of the market we are seeing some signs that the economic recovery may start by the fourth quarter. Paul Janake spoke to the North Eastern Lumber Manufacturers at their recent conference and predicts that housing starts will double in 2010. Paul is an economist that specializes in lumber issues. The doubling of nation wide starts, though it sounds terrific, still will leave us well below historical levels. That being said it is a beginning to recovery.
Here in Arizona, starts have been in the 300 range for the last four months. New home sales have averaged 1100 per month for the same period. That tells us the spec inventory is finally being absorbed and is another good sign that a recovery is eminent. It also tells us there are buyers out there and if consumers feel the bottom of the market is here, they will buy.
There seems to still be a significant amount of commercial projects to bid. We are aggressively searching out these projects. There is a consensus that the slow down will eventually catch up to commercial work. It is our hope that the housing market will recover before the commercial market starts to slow.
Economically we are not out of the woods yet. 2009 will continue to challenge us both from a business prospective as well as test our stress levels. I know everyone is up to the challenge. Thank you for your efforts.
